甘肃省农业现代化与农民增收的关系研究——基于灰色关联模型和VAR模型的实证分析

Study on the Relationship between Agricultural Modernization and Farmers' Income Increase in Gansu Province: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Grey Relational Model and the VAR Model

摘要:

甘肃省作为西部农业大省，研究农业现代化与农民增收的关系，对于落实乡村全面振兴战略，解决“三农”问题，推动甘肃省农业农村高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。选取《甘肃农村统计年鉴》2014—2024年数据，运用灰色关联模型，向量自回归模型(VAR)，探究甘肃省农业现代化与农民增收之间的动态交互作用及其内在机制。研究表明，甘肃省农业现代化与农民增收存在长期相互促进不可分割的关系，这种关系会随着农业现代化进程和农民收入的提升而不断加强。因此建议通过加强农业科技创新、推动成果转化、发挥新型农业经营主体引领作用、加大政府资金投入及监管、拓宽融资渠道、建立长效动态监测平台等方式以推动农业现代化进程和农民增收协同发展。

Abstract:

As a major agricultural province in western China, Gansu provides an important case for examining the relationship between agricultural modernization and farmers' income increase, which has significant practical implications for implementing the rural revitalization strategy, addressing the "Three Rural" issues, and promoting high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas in the province. Using data from the Gansu Rural Statistical Yearbook(2014-2024), the Grey Relational Model was first employed, followed by the application of a Vector Autoregression(VAR) model with data spanning 1996-2024, to investigate the dynamic interaction and inherent mechanisms between agricultural modernization and farmers' income growth in Gansu. The results demonstrate that agricultural modernization and farmers' income increase in Gansu exhibit a long-term, mutually reinforcing and inseparable relationship, which strengthens progressively with the advancement of agricultural modernization and the rise in farmers' income. Accordingly, to foster the synergistic development of agricultural modernization and increased agricultural production and farmers' income, this study recommends: strengthening agricultural scientific and technological innovation; promoting the transformation and application of research outcomes; giving full play to the leading role of new-type agricultural business entities; increasing governmental funding and strengthening supervision; broadening financing channels; and establishing a long-term dynamic monitoring platform.