黑龙江省近10年来农田生态系统碳足迹变化研究

Changes in Carbon Footprint of Farmland Ecosystem in Heilongjiang Province in the Recent 10 Years

摘要:

为推动黑龙江省农业绿色低碳发展，基于《黑龙江统计年鉴(2011—2020年)》数据，对近10年来的农田生态系统碳排放、碳吸收及碳足迹进行评估，并阐明时空演变特征。碳排放量根据化肥施用量、农业机械总动力和灌溉面积计算，碳吸收量则依据主要作物产量、经济系数及碳吸收率估算。研究利用ArcGIS、SPSS和Excel软件对区域时序变化与空间格局进行定量分析。结果表明，2010—2019年，黑龙江省农田生态系统碳排放总量呈波动上升趋势，累计增长18.31%，其中化肥使用贡献最大，占比达67.25%；碳吸收总量同期增长15.96%，整体表现为波动上升态势。从空间分布来看，碳排放、碳吸收及碳足迹均呈现“中南部较高、北部最低”的格局，东部地区近年来逐渐演变为高值区。农田碳足迹由80.19万hm²增加至82.31万hm²，总体增幅为2.64%。随着作物播种结构调整与产量提升，农田净碳汇能力持续增强。研究表明，优化作物种植结构并合理调控农业投入强度，是提升黑龙江省农田生态系统碳汇功能、促进区域农业生态文明建设的关键途径。

Abstract:

To promote green and low-carbon agricultural development in Heilongjiang Province, this study systematically evaluates the carbon emissions, carbon absorption, and carbon footprint of farmland ecosystems over the past decade, using data from the Heilongjiang Statistical Yearbook(2011-2020), and elucidates their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. Carbon emissions were calculated based on fertilizer application, total power of agricultural machinery and irrigated area, while carbon absorption was estimated using the yield of major crops, economic coefficients and carbon absorption rates. ArcGIS, SPSS and Excel were employed to conduct quantitative analyses of regional temporal variations and spatial patterns. The results indicate that from 2010 to 2019, the total carbon emissions from farmland ecosystems in Heilongjiang Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 18.31%. Among the emission sources, fertilizer use contributed the most, accounting for 67.25%. During the same period, total carbon absorption increased by 15.96%, also demonstrating an overall fluctuating upward trend. Spatially, carbon emissions, carbon absorption and carbon footprint displayed a pattern of “higher in the central and southern regions and lowest in the north,”and in recent years, the eastern region has gradually evolved into a high-value area. The farmland carbon footprint increased from 801,900 ha to 823,100 ha, representing an overall growth of 2.64%. With adjustments in crop planting structure and improvements in yield, the net carbon sink capacity of farmland has continued to strengthen. The findings suggest that optimizing crop planting structure and rationally regulating agricultural input intensity are key approaches to enhancing the carbon sequestration function of farmland ecosystems in Heilongjiang Province and promoting the construction of regional agricultural ecological civilization.