AI赋能农户绿色防控技术采纳现状及其效应研究—基于烟台市苹果种植户的调研

AI-Enabled Adoption of Green Pest Control Technologies by Farmers: Current Status and Effects—A Case Study of Apple Growers in Yantai City

摘要:

在农业现代化背景下，AI技术成为提升农业生产效率，推动农业绿色转型与乡村振兴的核心驱动力。本研究以烟台市苹果种植户为对象，通过对141户种植户的实地调研数据进行分析，构建基准回归模型与中介效应模型，探究AI赋能下绿色防控技术采纳现状及其经济效应和环境效应。研究发现：第一，绿色防控技术采纳呈现“生态调控为主、生物防治为辅”的结构特征，套袋、壁蜂授粉等技术采纳率超50%，但性诱、释放天敌等技术推广不足；AI技术整体采纳率仅20.41%，智能灌溉与施肥系统因成本效益显著成为首选，而高投资技术采纳率普遍低于20%；第二，绿色防控技术采纳对烟台苹果产业的经济效应和环境效应均具有显著正向影响；第三，AI技术在绿色防控技术与经济效应和环境效应之间起部分中介作用。基于此，提出强化技术推广与培训、完善技术服务支持、优化政策扶持激励等政策建议，旨在为推动农业绿色、高效、智能化发展提供参考。

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of agricultural modernization, artificial intelligence（AI） technology has emerged as a core driver for enhancing agricultural production efficiency, advancing the green transformation of agriculture, and revitalizing rural areas. By analyzing field survey data from 141 apple growers in Yantai City, this study constructed a baseline regression model and a mediating effect model to explore the current status of AI-enabled adoption of green pest control technologies, as well as their economic and environmental effects. The findings are as follows: First, the adoption of green pest control technologies exhibits a structural feature of “Ecological regulation as the main approach, supplemented by biological control.” Technologies such as fruit bagging and osmia pollination have adoption rates exceeding 50%, while the promotion of technologies like sex pheromone traps and natural enemy release remains insufficient. Among the surveyed farmers, the overall adoption rate of AI technology is only 20.41%: intelligent irrigation and fertilization systems are the most preferred due to their significant cost-effectiveness, whereas the adoption rates of high-investment technologies（e.g., drone orchard inspection and intelligent fruit quality sorting equipment） generally remain below 20%. Second, the adoption of green pest control technologies exerts a significantly positive impact on both the economic and environmental performance of the Yantai apple industry. Third, AI technology plays a partial mediating role between the adoption of green pest control technologies and their economic and environmental effects. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including strengthening technology promotion and training, improving technical service support, and optimizing policy incentives. These recommendations are aimed at providing a reference for promoting the green, efficient, and intelligent development of agriculture.