山东省农业产业结构调整的经济效益分析

Analysis of Economic Benefit of Agricultural Industrial Structure Adjustment in Shandong Province

摘要:

本文通过产值增长贡献率预测模型来分析山东农业结构调整对农业经济增长的影响,然后对两者进行回归分析,研究证明:2003～2017年山东省种植业比重逐年下调,林业和畜牧业变化不大,而渔业和农林牧渔服务业逐年上升;预测模型显示农业结构调整对农业经济的贡献率呈现负值;从产业结构调整对农业经济的回归分析得出:种植业、林业、畜牧业、渔业、农林牧渔服务业各产业的产值每增加1%,则分别为农业总产值带来0.499%、0.018%、0.283%、0.152%、0.043%的经济增量,说明种植业和畜牧业仍是山东省农业经济的主要推动力。这种农业主要推动力产业的比例下调,必然带给经济增长的负效应,但却是山东省农业结构适应农业现代化和市场需求的必然途径和结果。因此,山东省农业结构调整除了结构问题,下一步将进入品质结构调整、上市时间结构调整、区域分布结构调整等农业结构的深入调整阶段。

Abstract:

The impact of agricultural restructuring on agricultural economic growth in Shandong Province was analyzed in the paper through the contribution rate prediction model of output value growth, and then a regression analysis of the two was carried out. The research proved that the proportion of planting in Shandong Province decreased year by year from 2003 to 2017, and that forestry and animal husbandry changed a little, while fisheries, agriculture,forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services increased year by year. The forecast model showed that the contribution rate of agricultural structural adjustment to agricultural economy was negative. From the regression analysis of industrial restructuring to agricultural economy, it was concluded that the output value of planting, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery services industries increases by 1%, respectively, brought 0.499%, 0.018%, 0.283% of the total agricultural output value. The economic increments of 0.152%and 0.043% indicated that planting and animal husbandry were still the main driving forces of Shandong's agricultural economy. It was considered that the reduction of the proportion of the main driving force industries in agriculture will inevitably bring about negative effects on economic growth, but it is an inevitable way and result for the agricultural structure of Shandong Province to adapt to agricultural modernization and market demand. Therefore, in addition to structural problems, Shandong's agricultural restructuring will enter a further stage of agricultural restructuring, such as quality restructuring, time-to-market restructuring and regional distribution restructuring.